Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Whats wrong with this picture. Global indices are correcting except for the US


DOW


S&P 500

Spain IBEX 30


JAPAN NIKKEI AVERAGE INDEX(225)


DJ STOXX 50


GERMANY DAX(TR)


FRANCE CAC

and of course the Shanghai Composite refer: Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 6)

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 8)

A huge sell off is on, Greece gets a junk bond downgrade (finally)

RE: BHP

BHP 42 with a x leverage 0.5 - $2 strike / 2 = 9.5(x) Ok you short a small trade at 23 shares at 42 = $966 (x9.5). Hits your strike price of $40 = $9,177

BOOM! Nice

Monday, April 26, 2010

Saturday night Captain Morgan 'rum' and quick analysis of popular culture characters - the Taskmaster (comics)



Well no dates and no women last Saturday night, a policy? No, just the way it was. Being somewhat bored, I went to the local bottle shop at picked up a bottle of Captain Morgan 'spiced' rum went back to my unit and decided to sought through some comics. Picked up the Avengers: The Initiative (Marvel) comic and started reading them again, there is this character in that series by the name of the Taskmaster. He is kinda cool, well at least how Christos N. Gage (writer) has written him (a mercenary that wears a skull mask). Slightly hard story to explain, but the gist of it is a guy (Taskmaster) who is trying to see the best possible scenario in th worst possible conditions. Maybe it was the Captain Morgan kicking in, actually it was quite nice mini review coming, but I like characters whether male of female that just cope with odds and wait for the good luck to swing back again. You could call that adaption, but life generally is filled with good and bad luck situations; we can never have it just one way. Even with bad luck, say a prolonged period, eventually, or possibly, your luck changes and you get back on your feet and back up again. Woddy Allen mentioned this, I remember seeing an interview with him and how he said that he has been incredibly lucky, that one doesn't 'make their luck' pe se, he is right to a degree. You have to position your self for a change in circumstances, that is the knack. Many don't, if a period of misfortune occurs, even if it is relatively minor. They just except their lot with all it's misery.

So characters like the Taskmaster rings a bell, I liked the idea of a guy that just cuts it, some cash is flowing in, he has some company from time to time (female); he is just trying to roll, when the next big thing comes his way. Which is essentially what the 'Initiative' story was somewhat about, the Taskmaster seeing that the situation that he was involved in is turning south and he is trying to make his plan to get the fuck out.

So there you go.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

AUD put 2010

As brave as it is I have a put on the AUD. I am no George Soros (ref: to his (in)famous play against the GBP in the early 90's), but I have fond memories of 2008 refer to chart:

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 7)

The market is preparing for a Greek default as the yield on Greek 2yr notes jumped to more than 12% from 8.3% in the last couple of days (from Wednesday 21st April 2010).

The reality for the bond markets in relation to the EU (PIIGS) spreads, is that a gap is widening between German bunds and the less stable EU countries; as Greece starts to go into a default death spiral.

The bond markets know that a default will be inevitable and so does the FX market, refer to the below chart:

Note that the support (in red) is essentially the EUR collapse (support) line, if it goes under 1.28 the EUR has collapsed and may drift to the lows reached in March 2009 (global financial crisis), prior to the liquidity rallies on global indices.

Although slightly oversold on a daily chart, the Time Series Forecast (TSF) is showing a 1.33 price; but all indicators continue to show a downward pressure.


Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 6)

It would probably be prudent for all traders to create an RSS feed which is all Chinese economic news.

The market mover now will be China, especially on any substantial slowdown in 2010/2011

Shanghai composite SSE


MEC.RESEARCH mini reviews (update 6)


Flor De Cana Rum aged 7 yrs. Very good, has a nice caramel smell, sweet with that rum aged flavour. Drink 'neat' or on ice, but on ice it went down better for the palate


Herradura 'Anejo' Tequila. Wow, you know for a Anjeo (aged Tequila) this is not a smooth at all, the Partida Blanco is smoother than this; so is it nice? It's ok, first bottle bought and it will be the last. So there's your answer (update* tried again compared against the Partida Blanco, the Herradura tasted bitter, almost off; I poured it down the sink).



Daredevil #506 writer Andy Diggle Art Marco Checchetto

This is just a great run for Daredevil, if you don't know the character, well as Kevin Smith puts it, 'Daredevil is the Grateful Dead of comics', which I guess he means that the character has that cult, devoted following. Some writers managed to depress his character like Brian Bendis did, but Diggle has re-worked Daredevil as the fighter that he is, blind and psychologically complex but he hangs in there. This series is all about Ninjas, death-cults, violence, sexy women and betrayal (sexy women betrayal).



Eames dinning chairs

Yes I have always wanted an Eames chair, designed in 1946 this chair wasn't pumped out by draftsman in China for a mile long production line. Comfortable, functional and well designed. Original Eames? Well you are looking at some big bucks, mine is a locally made replica and reasonably priced. Nevertheless designed exceptionally well with no details left out (I have compared against the original).