Thursday, April 30, 2009

mec.research Store- The Pleasures and Sorrows of Work (Alain de Botton)

Misplaced optimism is deadly - Alain de Botton

I have so much respect for the writer and philosopher Alain de botton, I have enjoyed his books and his documentaries. Such a measured and sensible writer with a plethora of historic accounts on philosophy and how philosophic history is relevant even in todays modern world.

Recently he wrote a piece for the Financial Times (see below), on the idea of misplaced optimism that could lead to greater unhappiness. I agree so much to that and I also believe that optimism, or at least a blind belief in a constant equilibrium or optimism in life - is dangerous and disruptive to true happiness. As optimism should be measured on the ability to overcome adverse events. Not the assumption that the worst is over, but in preparation for 'problems'

Of course the financial markets are the end product of wayward optimism, especially at the present with talk of economic recovery. Which is conflicted by high unemployment and deflation in some economies (note Japan). When you hear the powers at be (leaders) start to say 'the worst is over', be skeptical, as disappointment could burn you worst from that initial fear of an economic meltdown.

Suffice to say Alain de Botton is a voice of sensibility:

from Financial Times:

For a happier life, shake off your misplaced optimism

By Alain de Botton

Published: April 30 2009 19:11 | Last updated: April 30 2009 19:11

It has been clear for a while, at least since the first talk started about “green shoots” of recovery, that what we have to fear above all is hope. Attempts to trust that the worst is over and to stop frightening ourselves seem doomed to project us into yet worse disappointment. We are not only unhappy but – believing calm and happiness to be the norm – unhappy that we are unhappy.

It is time to recognise how odd and counter-productive is the optimism on which we have grown up. For the last 200 years, despite occasional shocks, the western world has been dominated by a belief in progress, based on its extraordinary scientific and entrepreneurial achievements. On a broader perspective, this optimism is a grave anomaly. Humans have spent most of recorded history drawing a curious comfort from expecting the worst. In the west, lessons in pessimism have derived from two sources: Roman Stoic philosophy and Christianity. It may be time to revisit some of these teachings, not to add to our misery but precisely so as to alleviate our sorrow.

To focus on the first of these sources, the philosopher Seneca should be the author of the hour. Living in a time of financial and political upheaval (Nero was on the Imperial throne), Seneca interpreted philosophy as a discipline to keep us calm against a backdrop of continuous danger. His consolation was of the stiffest, darkest sort: “You say: ‘I did not think it would happen.’ Do you think there is anything that will not happen, when you know that it is possible to happen, when you see that it has already happened ... ?” Seneca tried to calm the sense of injustice in his readers by reminding them – in AD62 – that natural and man-made disasters will always be a feature of our lives, however sophisticated and safe we think we have become.

If we do not dwell on the risk of sudden calamity, in the money markets or elsewhere, and pay a price for our innocence, it is because reality comprises two cruelly confusing characteristics: on the one hand, continuity and reliability lasting decades; on the other, unheralded cataclysms. We find ourselves divided between a plausible invitation to assume that tomorrow will be much like today and the possibility that we will meet with an appalling event, after which nothing will ever be the same again. The Goddess of Fortune can scatter gifts, then watch as with terrifying speed a 50-year-old company disappears or a balance sheet is destroyed by toxic assets.

Because we are hurt most by what we do not expect, and because we must expect everything (“There is nothing which Fortune does not dare”), we must, argued Seneca, hold the possibility of the most obscene events in mind at all times. No one should make an investment, undertake to run a company, sit on a board or leave money in a bank without an awareness, which Seneca would have wished to be neither gruesome nor unnecessarily dramatic, of the darkest possibilities.

Given our financial prowess, we have for too long thought of ourselves as in control of our destiny. We have trusted in the mathematical geniuses who promised us “risk management” and fashioned derivatives so complex we dared not look inside. Such trust could not be further from a Stoic mindset. We must, stressed Seneca, expand our sense of what may go wrong in our lives: “Nothing ought to be unexpected by us. Our minds should be sent forward in advance to meet all the problems, and we should consider, not what is wont to happen, but what can happen. What is man? A vessel that the slightest shaking, the slightest toss will break. A body weak and fragile.”

Christianity only backed up the Stoic message. It pointed out that while humans might strive for perfection, it is a problem – indeed a sin – to suppose that such perfection can ever occur on earth. Nothing human can ever be free of blemishes. There cannot be an end to boom and bust, mayhem and death.

We have tended to cast such gloomy messages aside. The modern bourgeois philosophy pins its hopes firmly on two great presumed ingredients of happiness, love and work. But there is vast unthinking cruelty discreetly coiled within this magnanimous assurance that everyone will discover satisfaction here. It is not that these two entities are invariably incapable of delivering fulfilment, only that they almost never do so for too long.

When an exception is misrepresented as a rule, our individual misfortunes, instead of seeming to us quasi-inevitable aspects of life, weigh down on us like particular curses. In denying the natural place reserved for longing and disaster in the human lot, the bourgeois ideology denies us the possibility of collective consolation for our fractious marriages, unexploited ambitions and exploded portfolios, and condemns us instead to solitary feelings of shame and persecution for having stubbornly failed to make more of ourselves.

We should, of course, instead remember the great pessimistic voices of history. There are two quotes I cherish for these sorts of times. One is from Seneca: “What need is there to weep over parts of life? The whole of it calls for tears.” The other is from the French moralist Chamfort: “A man should swallow a toad every morning to be sure of not meeting with anything more revolting in the day ahead.”

The writer’s most recent book is The Pleasures and Sorrows of Work

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 9 )

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 9 )

There is a high probability that this virus
[H1N1] or swine flu is mutating rapidly into global pandemic that human immunity has not confronted before. Therefore this influenza virus could end up being deadly to healthy immune systems. The WHO organization has lifted the pandemic alert to 5 (closer to 6 which is the final pandemic alert). Screening at airports is probably useless, in the sense the infection is probably already in most countries, either incubated in carriers, or as a mild form of flu. It should be noted that the Spanish Flu out break of 1918 started mild and then became a serious pandemic. This new outbreak could be the same.

The Swine flu is unknown in it's genetic makeup, this influenza could be a whole different ball game, as there is speculation that this virus could be passed onto pets, dogs and cats from humans. Although this needs to be rigorously studied before evidence of human to animal can be determined.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

mec.research Store - WAR MACHINE (Marvel Comics)

WAR MACHINE #4 WRITER: GREG PAK. PENCILS: LEONARDO MANCO (Marvel comics)


Great comic, written for the sign of our times. Injustice in foreign lands, torture and exploitation of civilians, US sanctioned private armies running the show, corrupt officials, corrupt world and a virus outbreak (turns people maniacal zombies with super powers).

The art by Leonardo Manco is fluid, with just enough 'gritty' realism. Story by Greg Pak hits the right notes, as far as revealing the underbelly of US foreign relations that involves tapping a countries resources with brutal force. A tough comic in someways, don't read this after a day of news reports. Actually read this after a day of news reports.

S&P 500 over valued? The Fed money pump keep stocks buoyant. Supports could break on more 'gloom'

The S&P 500 rallies despite overwhelming bad news. This has occurred because of several things, one the Fed is thawing up credit markets for the larger companies to tap (sorry not for the consumer), earnings are on the back of tax payer bailouts, particularly the Banks for the 1st quarter of 2009. Risk is back with a vengeance, so a stock bubble is forming even in oversold markets. With valuation's up to 14+ times earnings, so it would indicate that institutional investors, or bigger brokerage firms have reaffirmed risk appetite. Considering how fucked up the US economy is, I am looking for a further drop in valuation to say, 'yes the market has bottomed'; and that could be months off. Big brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs and the rest of Wall Street will naturally fall into feverish risk taking again, and guess what? They can tap the US taxpayer when Wall Street hits a downside.

Still, what goes up comes down. Which might keep stocks in a bear market are the major problems of companies earnings into 2009, more so the larger banks and consumer based companies (like tech stocks, i.e we will be holding on to our old software and computers). The US recession continues on, despite an over valuation ( as mentioned stocks are not that cheap). The S & P 500 could fall further into 2009, in fact it could touch lows or go below 676 (March 9 2009).

Of course nothing is without disturbance, market analysts, traders and economists should factor everything in (long term), from geopolitical, future economic peril, particularly bank issues, bank bankruptcies and further large underemployment figures. Then their is a flu pandemic. So it is extremely unlikely that this is the beginning of a bull market.

Still as Marc Faber said recently, the 'Fed will keep printing money' despite continue gloom, as excess liquidity will support stock prices more so the S & P 500. So it's a tug of war of fundamentals (reality) and a US Federal Reserve printing press. Something will give at some point. Hard to say when, but a another shock to the stock market is on the cards. Could be closer than we think, particularly if the Pandemic starts to crunch economies, more so Asia (Singapore, South Korea and Japan).

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 8)

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 8)

"Mexican authorities today raised the toll of suspected swine flu-related deaths to 159 while revising down the number of confirmed deaths to seven from 20." from Bloomberg

"suspected swine flu - related deaths" The WHO needs to clarify how dangerous this virus is to human health. Can it mutate to a more deadly strain? A lot of questions.