Investment update Decemeber 2009 (forward into 2010)

Long term plays are oil stocks and ETF's; some speculative plays and some of the most lucrative have been in biotechnology namley a small company called Biota (BTA) that produces the influenza antiviral Relenza in which Relenza is distributed through the drug making giant Glaxosmithkline (GSK.L). Since it's rival Tamiflu (produced by Roche) has been somewhat knocked out of the competition (due to it been ineffective against H1N1) Biota stocks will be held into early next year, depending on the (Relenza) profit made for the last quarter and how flu season pans out

Gold as a hedge against the US dollar, although for the time being with the USD gaining strength on a mixture of cautious markets and speculation on interest rates rises in the US, gold should settle into a support range. There are puts on my favorite currency (to bet against) the Australian dollar. This is short term option trading. The longer term is total USD weakness as the US ecomomy splutters into 2010. But a risk averse event and I am still seeing something unwinding in the bond markets, whether sovereign wealth fund imploding somewhere, or a goverment defaulting on debt or a war in the middle east. With central banks flooding the global economy with cash and shifting private debt onto public balance sheets. It's a fragile, very fragile global recovery; a major risk event in 2010 could economically unhinge everything. When Lehaman collapsed in 2008 and sent the whole market into meltdown risk assets like the AUD, stocks unwind positions dramatically. If something major occurred and it's more public orientated, then there will be quick shifts into safer commodities from risk assets. A build up of USD buying could be a precursor, something I am going to watch as the markets could reverse very quickly.

Oil price should remain steady with a potential price breakout as discussed in Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 6 - potential of 'mega' breakout looming, in the meantime I believe the Lithium battery market is a new energy market that is creeping up (to attempt to offset higher oil prices). This is no real speculation pe se as lithium batteries are now being used in most portable hand held devises, like my Thompson MP3/Dictaphone and the PS3 controllers amongst other things (no need to replace the batteries built in lithium batteries that have a large lifespan). The industry that is going to utilize this is the car industry. China is a net importer of oil is of course looking at the electrical lithium powered car. So I am looking at well funded small lithium miners namely in Australia.

* MEC.research doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk