Monday, November 30, 2009
Alex Grey art
Big fan of his art. For a guy that took LSD 'trips' and earned a living (early in his career) as a medical drawer. The art that he has drawn and continues to draw is a nice fusion of the psychedelic journey into the inner workings of human beings.
Website: www.alexgrey.com
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Risk is back on as Dubai debt problems fades.
All market supports held with the sell off. Nevertheless it's a precursor.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Some analyst playing down Dubai contagion
Dubai was a long time coming, it's not the debt issue it's the exposure issue and it's a fear issue. Since the credit crunch was papered over with public monies the underlying shit is still floating around and a major 'freeze' on credit markets cannot be ruled out. Especially on the back of sovereign funds exposure to commercial property debt; creditors are going to get really itchy.
It's FUBAR time
The AUD is going down - risk currencies could all be toast
Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009 (update4) - 'mini' crisis is now here.
So gold is now a heavily supported asset, central banks and goverment are trying to diversify into gold as the USD weakens further. With the Federal Reserve and US goverment obsessed about weakening the USD with continued money printing thus flooding the US economy with liquidity, as mentioned the stability of the USD is being questioned short term, near term and of course long term. The 'mini crisis that is now occurring is the anticipated commercial property market meltdown as discussed in Dubai World CDS spreads blow apart, the Dubai commercial market appears to be the epicenter at this point. As the property developer Dubai World is the first to shatter markets with debt defaults looming. This should ensure that all debt and interbank spreads from CDS (credit default swaps) through to the LIBOR rates will now widen. With banks revisiting the fear of the 2007/2008, think back to the subprime residential meltdown in the US with caused banks to write down assets in the trillions and froze credit markets; so the beginnings of another credit crunch have now occured and this could be a lot bigger in the size of losses. With the US markets on holiday (Thanks giving) Europe bore the brunt of a wave of selling, the USD strengthen then weakened and gold was bought on as a safe haven.
Optimal Tracker Filter trailing with gold price with little diversion. Gold is just under the upper Bollinger Bands set at 20, 2 days. Gold is now way above the moving averages of 50 and 100 days, this could indicate an overbought signal, however the price support for gold is still 1028 with a trigger sell at 990.
Finally the ATR is still showing low volatility with the gold price, which would mean there has been a steady buying of gold with little profit taking. This would reinforce that the flow of money going into gold is for protection as gold is seen as a safe haven or 'crisis' hedge, more so over the USD and other related assets.
*morbius glass doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Dubai World CDS spreads blow apart
I wrote this blog post on November 16th 2009 titled Stocks globally may rally whilst the global economy cracks up in which in indicated that rallies in stock markets could continue right into 2010 although some "heads up" events are on the calendar. It appears these 'events' could be sooner.
The possible bankruptcy of Dubai World could not only derail markets (risk aversion) but hammer down on CDS spreads across the middle east. Since the Dubai government invests heavily into private and public investments. A nasty default crunch could be settling in and the first of the commercial property collapses (it's coming).
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
AUD driven up by bank speculation...and declining USD
AUD/USD parity should hit at some point next year, possibly between January or February 2010. But as the global economy starts to choke on debt (from stimulus fiscal and monetary expansion) banks and institutional investors are pushing the AUD forward on the back (as mentioned) USD weakness and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rates. So the RBA that likes to make money (hell it is a bank) are also steering the AUD upward (even with out interest rates) with talking up recovery and advising that credit expansion for households is ok. Kinda shocking when the RBA deputy governor Ric Battellino said that Australian households appeared to have the capacity "to sustain a relatively high ratio of housing prices to income". As we have learned from the credit markets melting down in 2007 and 2008 central banks have no conception of what credit bubbles are; but it's all business and the RBA has sold (profit taking) some substantial amounts of AUD in the last week or so.
But banks could be straining into 2010 when stimulus falls off and capital requirements set in.
So if you own calls on the AUD there is a lot of support for a parity in 2010
"London Calling" on a tripped out Friday night
But after a date last Friday night I wandered around some desolate areas of Melbourne city. It was all stark buildings, flickering lights and what look like a lot of zombies. Suffice to say, this song fitted in very nicely as the narrative.
The Clash London's Calling
Monday, November 23, 2009
Mec.research Store - Human Givens: A new approach to emotional health and clear thinking by Joe Griffin and Ivan Tyrrell
Please refer to an older blog post regarding an interview with Joe Griffin. Please click this link.
I am a big fan of his practical and sensible way of looking at psychotherapy for depression, anxiety, trauma etc.
*update June 2010
A bias towards psychological therapy that doesn't involve medication. Opinion: subjective to the individual. What works, will work; drugs or not.
"Yuppies, Rednecks, and Lesbian Bitches from Mars "
US dollar and stocks contiue to diverge as US Treasuries are stuck the middle
In summary the bond market expects the US goverment and Federal Reserve to continue to support asset prices and keep interest rates low. So the speculation will continue in the stock market as stock prices will inflate with poor fundamentals attached.
Completely distorted markets.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
The Federal Reserve is on a roll and they are smoking some bad shit!
But it's choked up and demand has fallen off.
The Fed will re-inflate assets markets till the endgame comes. It has too, if a sudden rush occurs from risk assets to risk averse assets like the US dollar and Treasuries the high yields on bonds will crush their value and with the Federal Reserve being the big holder that they are...fuck what an unrealized loss that will be; but the endgame, or the build up to the endgame, will be market flops on bond auctions (globally). Hence the Treasury yields all dipping in the last month or so as investors still buying up risk assets. But Obama needs investors to buy Government debt and the Fed have gone mad about driving down the yields on Treasuries.
The Federal Reserve and Obama administration are solely underpinning assets markets, and as I said, till the whole thing collapses. (Refer to article from the Telegraph reporting that Société Générale (bank) are preparing for a worst case scenario in a debt market collapse).
Either way it's a FUBAR situation with gold as the winner. Gold being an inflation and crisis hedge.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
There appears to be a lot zombie small/mid cap companies out there
The other day I looked (randomly) at a hand full of small/mid cap companies; from 'junior' miners, biotechs and tech development. I was quite shocked that despite the rise in all of their share prices these companies had nothing to show for it, in fact what I saw was businesses running on air. Ok, it was a ruff cross section, but when you hear some analysts say that the recently stock rallies are not backed with sound fundamentals. You just need to have a quick look at the market to see for your self, more so their earnings and risk.
P/E was non existent for some (they are not making money) and generally overstretched in various sectors connected to the share price. Interest cover ratio was frightening for the companies that I looked at, in most cases it was very negative. With a credit crunch No2 around the corner banks won't extend credit lines to zombies.
The overall earnings out look was negative. Yet all have gained by the recent stock rallies. So it must be ascertained that a reprieve was bought for these companies post stock market crash 2008 and 2009. Some equity raising in the current bull market via stock speculation (money from Federal Reserve/US government) and general speculation (valueless US dollar). Another aspect that caught my eye was long positions. Which was a worry when it appeared that long positions were responsible in supporting stocks prices but the overall volumes were thin. The other aspect is the bond and junk bond markets could be a precursor for a big dump in shares (particularly these small unprofitable businesses). If the is a huge bond/debt bubble looming and there could be a collapse in bond prices into 2010. These companies are history, banks won't lend and the market will pull out liquidity out of a lot of these stocks. For what I have seen (like I said it was a snapshot) regardless shows that there could be a lot of zombie companies that have been buoyed by the recent stock rallies.
There is a big unwind coming soon.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Purple Magazine #12
This is the new one. It's heavy and expensive but dammit it's thick. Packed with photos and articles, there is just so much in there I have yet to decipher it all. The layout and photography is top notch, it's a decadent magazine but it s so stylized in a rustic kinda way. Hard to explain, definitely one of the more edgy of the current fashion/culture magazines. Terry Richardson's full spread (previewed in this post) is in this one, it's 3 top models doing a 3 way thing courtesy of Richardson's style ( nude photography). The embossed devil tarot imprinted into the background on the cover photo sets the stage for this current issue. Great stuff. Check out the Yoko Onno and Sean Lennon interview/article. This issue also comes with a photographic type journal called Debris photos by Ari Marcopoulo with a collection of nice stark city scape photography and urban photography, which I am a big fan of.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Generation X 1980's star goes bonkers in NYC
For all the Generation X'ers that read this blog and our collective fond memories of the 1980's. This report caught my eye. Remember the movies Breakfast Club, Pretty in Pink and Weird Science? Where nerds and naked women ran hand in hand (maybe not so much in the movie Pretty in Pink but y'know what I am saying...). Well do you also remember the actor Anthony Michael Hall? The super nerdy guy that played those super nerdy parts in various 80's flicks. He went nuts in NYC from Gothamist
"Falzone, a Sirius Radio host and HuffPo relationship columnist, slapped the restraining order on her ex, who suffers from bipolar disorder. It states he must "refrain from assault, stalking, harassment ... menacing, reckless endangerment ... intimidation."
This comes after Hall kicked down her door during an early morning unexpected visit, which according to police reports was followed by him bashing her head against a wall."
Monday, November 16, 2009
Stocks globally may rally whilst the global ecomomy cracks up
In the meantime there are some heads up:
1. A bubble in government bonds, more particularly watching Japan's bond market as the government will issue more debt to fund it's huge deficits into 2010. This will add too supply coming onto the market thus causing yields to rise. In summary Japan may find it very hard to raise equity in the bond markets (as investors sideline on buying goverment bonds). We may see a slumping domino effect in other bond markets as goverments try and raise funds into 2010 and the colossal bubble forming in bonds deflates.
2. The new year 2010 should make the first on the commercial real estate writedowns as banks connected to the commercial mortgage backed security market start to post losses. Listening to reports on the amount of leverage compared to cash is mind boggling from Dubai to London and every other city in the world where investors borrowed big (with little cash) to build commercial property that in all retrospect is just sitting there.
3. With a US dollar going down this of course pushes up commodity prices this will effect food prices namley wheat prices. A real inflationary issue (globally) even if the Federal Reserve deny it, will effect developed counties (as it is now) and more so effecting poorer countries according to a Daily Finance report
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Daredevil (Comic) Writer: Andy Diggle Art: Roberto De La Torre
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Jim Rogers v's Nouriel Roubini
This slight slug fest originates around the weakening US dollar and it's effect on commodity markets. As Roubini refers to commodities as bubble markets, he also refers to the current stock rallies as a bubble. Rogers dismisses this and says that markets (both commodities and equities) have yet to reach previous highs, therefore are not in bubble ranges (say compared to the equity markets in 2008 - before the collpase). In a sense Rogers is right, yes markets are bubbly, but not completely in bubble territory and rise in commodities is responding to a weak USD. So loose liquidity is driving markets higher, including gold. If dollar weakness persists in 2010, yes gold will go higher. As discussed in Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009 (update 3) - or just overbought?, supports are now in higher prices ranges and trading ranges are narrowing. If the Federal Reserve starts to tighten interest rates they will be hit with the long term bond losses (value collapses). Again Rogers is correct the only bubble so far is goverment bonds. That's our pending problem. Not so much equities or even gold going higher as the declining US dollar is not critical yet.
Article found here
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
A clueless business reporter
Even worst is the markets are now deemed too optimistic, which mans that a correction could sweep through them at some-point. It's just that we have absolute US dollar weakness, hence the drive in equity markets namely lead from Wall Street.
But this fucking guy knows nothing, re:Australia
- Australia's terms of trade have collapsed, meaning that credit to the country is out of whack to it's debits. In other words we owe more than what we earn.
- The Australian government is precariously trying to please everyone. Unemployment for October 2009 quarter up-ticked to 5.8% from 5.7% last quarter, but this information comes from government statistician body, which of course underplays unemployment by smoothing out numbers, namely overly countering in part-time and casual as employed. This is trying to balance confidence in the markets. But regardless unemployment is higher than what they (ABS) report. Why? The government is slamming down on skilled business visas, in other words the Australian job market is shrinking. This can also be seen in bad debt provision and bank-write downs that began this quarter. More notably the NAB, Westpac and ANZ write downs.
- Australian bonds like most government bonds will have quality issues. If Government is absorbing risk and it's income is shrinking from falling exports and tax receipts, why would I bother with government debt? As the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to increase rates because they know that stagflation is already occurring in the Australian economy. This of course effects the value of bonds. This will be another income shock for the Australian economy.
- So investors buy the Australian Dollar (I own calls on the AUD), this again effects the overall income of the Australian ecomomy as exports are too expensive.
- With large deficits close to 80billion and a deteriorated bond market, inflation and export problems. The Australian economy will struggle. But most people know this, hence a degree of liquidity tightening towards end of the year.
I am down with this philosophy: refer to blog post: Misplaced optimism is deadly - Alain de Botton
I am going to have a coffee now.
Metal Magazine
Another cool fashion/culture/art mag from Spain! I dig it. Hard to fine but you can buy it online
Check out some of the art (very good) in their latest issue, on their website
morbius glass quote of the month – November 2009
Anis Nin
This months quote is dedicated to people close to me that are going through some hard times.
And anyone else trying to see a better day.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 6 - potential of 'mega' breakout looming
So the main driver of a high oil price is USD weakness, a mega spike in the oil price will be due to oil analysts shifting through a recent report that came in from a IEA whistle blower. This report was released on the 9 November 2009. It is an accepted aspect that the Saudis, US and UK have overestimate oil output for a long time. The reality is output is slowing quote rapidly (no new oil fields are coming on line). Of course governments do not like panic, since they have artificially propped up the global economy with stimulus, the reality is that the invertible (major oil decline) is on the cards.
Article found here re: IEA whistle blower The Guardian newspaper
In the meantime oil could spike into the high 80.00's on market driving the price high from the ex IEA employer reports. Regardless the price differentiates of the oil price to the supply out put (figures from officials) will always be a widening spread. As discussed the market knows oil is dwindling so there is potential for a 'mega' breakout in the coming months. If oil does spike, we could see other market jitters towards he end of the year. As a high oil price will dampening economic recovery, significantly.
Oil currently at 78.00
*MEC.research doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk
Monday, November 9, 2009
"Why haven't we met any aliens"
Anyway, Geoffrey Miller is an assistant professor in the department of psychology at University of New Mexico and author of The Mating Mind is one of the main proponents on evolutionary psychology when it become semi famous ( BBC documentaries) late 90's early 2000. Wrote an article for Seed magazine in 2006. Basically it's coming form a frustrated perspective as the whole concept of the "mating mind" had been reshaped via the internet. He makes some good points (in a sarcastic way), mainly discussing that humans simple cannot evolve with intervening aspects such as information technology that causes a form of deception in interaction, in his words a "fitness faked" world. He also indicates that a species that advances too quickly may eventually just self destruct.
But overall I don't really agree with him or his article, as I see environmental factors that have caused degrees of complacency in our culture - whether that be the reliance on the internet for interaction. Of course habit and trends in behavior change and they can change suddenly. But Miller sounds like one of these horrible interventionists such as the Keynesian type economic philosophy that has been implicated by government and pushed by certain academics. The degree of complacency (currently) in our society is unbelievable I would agree, but it is reinforced by status quo mentality influenced by government and governing bodies. We had a wealth induced (which was actually fake) environment, this lead to excess it also lead to a unbalanced aspect of power in our society. In other worlds everyone acted like they had equal power. Yes again it was faked via networking and so called social friendship sites. It is more a kinda bizarre twist on an overtly communistic type system where everyone through the internet has tried to create an equilibrium (you have in the sense a even playing field - the net) but at the same time brokering power. That's the problem. But I don't think it's the end of the world.
As I mentioned it is a faked system supported by government (more so now than the last 10 years) and like all economic/social systems supported by a governing body they eventually collapse (note the anniversary of the collapse of communism in Europe - The Berlin Wall coming down).
If you believe in self correcting systems which is what I what I believe, than eventually there will be a re-balancing. A natural cycle of culling excesses and reestablishing a new environment. One that we have never seen before and can only assume it will be similar to the cataclysmic changes that have occurred in our history.
In summary I have a lot of faith in human beings, our cultures, individualism and technology. We have an inherit ability to survive under stress. Yes adaption has been somewhat pushed away from us via regulation and an overly reliance on institutional control. But at the end of the day we work well together.
So the article below is a bit of a nerdy whine (and he sounds kinda depressive), still it's a fun read:
(side note - I actually think we will hear from Aliens in the next decade or so...y'know like a signal).
May 1, 2006
A radical explanation for a conundrum about extra-terrestrial life, and what it means for the future of humanity
The story goes like this: Sometime in the 1940s, Enrico Fermi was talking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial intelligence with some other physicists. They were impressed that life had evolved quickly and progressively on Earth. They figured our galaxy holds about 100 billion stars, and that an intelligent, exponentially-reproducing species could colonize the galaxy in just a few million years. They reasoned that extra-terrestrial intelligence should be common by now. Fermi listened patiently, then asked, simply, “So, where is everybody?” That is, if extra-terrestrial intelligence is common, why haven’t we met any bright aliens yet? This conundrum became known as Fermi’s Paradox.
Since then, the paradox has become ever more baffling. Paleontology has shown that organic life evolved quickly after the Earth’s surface cooled and became life-hospitable. Given simple life forms, evolution shows progressive trends toward larger bodies, brains and social complexity. Evolutionary psychology has revealed several credible paths from simpler social minds to human-level creative intelligence. So evolving intelligence seems likely, given a propitious habitat—and astronomers think such habitats are common. Moreover, at least 150 extrasolar planets have been identified in the last few years, suggesting that life-hospitable planets orbit most stars. Yet 40 years of intensive searching for extra-terrestrial intelligence have yielded nothing: no radio signals, no credible spacecraft sightings, no close encounters of any kind.
It looks, then, as if we can answer Fermi in two ways. Perhaps our current science over-estimates the likelihood of extra-terrestrial intelligence evolving. Or, perhaps evolved technical intelligence has some deep tendency to be self-limiting, even self-exterminating. After Hiroshima, some suggested that any aliens bright enough to make colonizing space ships would be bright enough to make thermonuclear bombs, and would use them on each other sooner or later. Maybe extra-terrestrial intelligence always blows itself up. Indeed, Fermi’s Paradox became, for a while, a cautionary tale about Cold War geopolitics.
I suggest a different, even darker solution to the Paradox. Basically, I think the aliens don’t blow themselves up; they just get addicted to computer games. They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they’re too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. They don’t need Sentinels to enslave them in a Matrix; they do it to themselves, just as we are doing today. Once they turn inwards to chase their shiny pennies of pleasure, they lose the cosmic plot. They become like a self-stimulating rat, pressing a bar to deliver electricity to its brain’s ventral tegmental area, which stimulates its nucleus accumbens to release dopamine, which feels…ever so good.
The fundamental problem is that an evolved mind must pay attention to indirect cues of biologicalfitness, rather than tracking fitness itself. This was a key insight of evolutionary psychology in the early 1990s; although evolution favors brains that tend to maximize fitness (as measured by numbers of great-grandkids), no brain has capacity enough to do so under every possible circumstance. Evolution simply could never have anticipated the novel environments, such as modern society, that our social primate would come to inhabit. That would be a computationally intractable problem, even for the new IBM Blue Gene/L supercomputer that runs 280 trillion operations per second. Even long-term weather prediction is easy when compared to fitness prediction. As a result, brains must evolve short-cuts: fitness-promoting tricks, cons, recipes and heuristics that work, on average, under ancestrally normal conditions.
The result is that we don’t seek reproductive success directly; we seek tasty foods that have tended to promote survival, and luscious mates who have tended to produce bright, healthy babies. The modern result? Fast food and pornography. Technology is fairly good at controlling external reality to promote real biological fitness, but it’s even better at delivering fake fitness—subjective cues of survival and reproduction without the real-world effects. Having real friends is so much more effort than watching Friends. Actually colonizing the galaxy would be so much harder than pretending to have done it when filming Star Wars or Serenity. The business of humanity has become entertainment, and entertainment is the business of feeding fake fitness cues to our brains.
Fitness-faking technology tends to evolve much faster than our psychological resistance to it. With the invention of the printing press, people read more and have fewer kids. (Only a few curmudgeons lament this.) With the invention of Xbox 360, people would rather play a high-resolution virtual ape in Peter Jackson’s King Kong than be a perfect-resolution real human. Teens today must find their way through a carnival of addictively fitness-faking entertainment products: iPods, DVDs, TiVo, Sirius Satellite Radio, Motorola cellphones, the Spice channel, EverQuest, instant messaging, MDMA, BC bud. The traditional staples of physical, mental and social development—athletics, homework, dating—are neglected. The few young people with the self-control to pursue the meritocratic path often get distracted at the last minute. Take, for example, the MIT graduates who apply to do computer game design for Electronics Arts, rather than rocket science for NASA.
Around 1900, most inventions concerned physical reality: cars, airplanes, Zeppelins, electric lights, vacuum cleaners, air conditioners, bras, zippers. In 2005, most inventions concern virtual entertainment—the top 10 patent-recipients were IBM, Canon, Hewlett-Packard, Matsushita, Samsung, Micron Technology, Intel, Hitachi, Toshiba and Fujitsu—not Boeing, Toyota or Victoria’s Secret. We have already shifted from a reality economy to a virtual economy, from physics to psychology as the value-driver and resource-allocator. We are already disappearing up our own brainstems. Our neurons over-stimulate each other, promiscuously, as our sperm and eggs decay, unused. Freud’s pleasure principle triumphs over the reality principle. Today we narrow-cast human-interest stories to each other, rather than broadcasting messages of universal peace and progress to other star systems.
Maybe the bright aliens did the same. I suspect that a certain period of fitness-faking narcissism is inevitable after any intelligent life evolves. This is the Great Temptation for any technological species—to shape their subjective reality to provide the cues of survival and reproductive success without the substance. Most bright alien species probably go extinct gradually, allocating more time and resources to their pleasures, and less to their children. They eventually die out when the game behind all games—the Game of Life—says “Game Over; you are out of lives and you forgot to reproduce.”
Heritable variation in personality might allow some lineages to resist the Great Temptation and last longer. Some individuals and families may start with an “irrational” Luddite abhorrence of entertainment technology, and they may evolve ever more self-control, conscientiousness and pragmatism. They will evolve a horror of virtual entertainment, psychoactive drugs and contraception. They will stress the values of hard work, delayed gratifica tion, child-rearing and environmental stewardship. They will combine the family values of the religious right with the sustainability values of the Greenpeace left. Their concerns about the Game of Life will baffle the political pollsters who only understand the rhetoric of status and power, individual and society, rights and duties, good and evil, us and them.
This, too, may be happening already. Christian and Muslim fundamentalists and anti-consumerism activists already understand exactly what the Great Temptation is, and how to avoid it. They insulate themselves from our creative-class dreamworlds and our EverQuest economics. They wait patiently for our fitness-faking narcissism to go extinct. Those practical-minded breeders will inherit the Earth as like-minded aliens may have inherited a few other planets. When they finally achieve contact, it will not be a meeting of novel-readers and game-players. It will be a meeting of dead-serious super-parents who congratulate each other on surviving not just the Bomb, but the Xbox.
Geoffrey Miller is an assistant professor in the department of psychology at University of New Mexico and author of The Mating Mind: How Sexual Choice Shaped the Evolution of Human Nature.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009 (update 3) - or just overbought?
The proof of inflationary conditions beginning in the US in the current gold price at 1100 (from trading range at 1090). Is gold near term overbought? Most probably, but supports are at 1028 and a possible trigger sell at 990
But with low volatility via the ATR shows an indication of a possible pullback of the Gold price, but also with low volatility it would also indicate that another upside breakout is possible.
May also indicate trading ranges are narrowing.
*morbius glass doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk
Thursday, November 5, 2009
When you are 'tripping' all points of reality become one.
I love this scene:
So, is a hallucinogenic drug like Poyte able to remove the background noise of life and all it's distraction so one can methodically focus on a point of singularity. Such as the Roulette Wheel?
There has been some scientific work on hallucinogenics and the ability of a person who takes a 'trip' to freeze time of slow down time. This theory falls into the realm of the studies by a scientist by the name of Metod Saniga. The crux of the theory is that in time and space all points are as one, meaning that the past and the future all meet at one junction point. Hence the concept of time freezing in the preset (someone who has tripped out) or time speeding up - yet the person is still within the preset point i.e hasn't moved. Sure the theory has some basic explanation of space time and junction points, which was put together by studies of hallucinogenic uses and their experiences. He (Saniga) then theorizes that space and time generally do not follow our perception of time, as everything flows into singularity.
But can one gauge the future in a hallucinogenic state or using Sanga's modeling? That is the question
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Is the US dollar a risk aversion 'buy' end 2009?
If you look at the graph carefully you'll notice that the extreme lows for the USD occurred in March 2008 (0.71) then as mentioned, risk aversion sent the USD soaring.
So in summary, yes the USD could stabilize and show some sideways type recovery, but for the USD to really gain strength we need the following, a substantial trade war (some shots have been fired namely Obama's tariff on Chinese tire imports and of recently Australia's duty 16% on Chinese aluminum - after China began dumping Aluminum onto the Australian market. China and Australia are essentially already having a trade war re: BHP fiasco), a conflict, a major economic meltdown or other collapse (US bank of otherwise).
Considering the last quarter of 2009 could see some correction in stocks and USD buying. The USD is still in a decline and hasn't reached critical as yet (assuming 0.71 we be the 'crisis' point for the USD).
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Paranormal Activity movie (2009)
I saw this movie on the weekend.
To me the doco drama type movie or movies work really well. A simple structure, meaning that filming is done by a hand held camera (home movie), or illusion that it is hand held. As previously discussed in morbius glass, the movie Gloverfield is to me what Basic Instinct was to Camellia Pagalia ("what? please explain"...refer to this site and subtitle under 'Extras'). As Cloverfield looked into how generation Y would cope with stress after living on the gravy train (and it ends). Paranormal Activity kinda runs from a similar angle and you look at it the movie as an observation of young, urban couples . No, it's not 80's or even 90's yuppies. It is more the financially leveraged unmarried 20+ somethings living the urban dream. The film bases it's self around a couple by the names of Micah and Katie, actually an endearing couple and so similar to so many people. In other words it feels real and the character aspects are very contemporary.
Yes this a scary flick and I have seen (in the name of horror) all that have thrown onto celluloid (celluloid? Ok, digital, but celluloid sounds cooler). The fear that is generated with Paranoia Activity is the fact that you share the lives of a young and somewhat naive but likable (Micah pushes it though) couple as they try and film/sound record whats been causing them anxiety. Of course it starts off mild and goes very 'south' towards the end.
Is Paranormal Activity a look at urban isolation? Maybe, I mean the couple seem very content and settled in their house but with virtually no social scene. We see that the support they get is very non existent, except for a psychic who can't wait to get the fuck out of there (Micah and Katie's house).
So you witness their attempts at rationalizing the situation and then their collapse as they cannot salvage or find a solution, whilst self documented by the couple.
So check it out. As a side note I remember seeing a documentary of the making of Apocalypse Now when Francis Ford Coppola professed that one day someone will make a successful movie with a hand held video camera. Well his forecast was correct as the Blair Witch Project sent forth a precedence of doco/drama's and so far most film makers running with this medium (hand held camera/doco drama) have been successful.
Word of warning after watching this flick. You will start too think about those little noises (that maybe you didn't notice before) in your house/unit. Sans that usual knocking in the walls somewhere at 11:00pm - 3:00am in the morning (if you live in a block of flats). Actually include all noises you hear that you didn't hear before, including wall knocking.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
The science of dating and a mathematical equation
Here is the math to find yourself a partner. I actually think it makes somewhat sense (in a deduction type of way)...anyway as follows:
N / e (2.72) = benchmark
N being the first 10 (as an example) prospective dates divided by the transcendental number e which is 2.72 = 3
So out of 3 dates you rate the one that would be the best date. From there a benchmark is created.
Kinda dorky...but an apparent 37% success in narrowing down partners.
Volatility kicking in - Risk Aversion back on
In saying that volatility has caused risk averse trading to take place. Volatility via CIT bankruptcy (confirmed with a 2 billion hit to US taxpayers - US Treasury loans) and US consumer sentiment (tanked)