Wednesday, June 3, 2009
World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 11)
World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 11)
Already the A H1N1 (or Swine flu) has reached pandemic levels. With major country outbreaks (as defined by a pandemic) with Australia recording the highest amount, outside the Americas, of effected people by 620.
A H1N1 in it's present form is a mild influenza, but it's spreading more rapidly than nominal influenza, as far as moving from country to country in a short period of time. This is the concern as the southern hemisphere goes into it's flu season the question is how will the A H1N1 mutate. Will it become a pandemic killer like the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic ? This is why the World Health Organization is concerned is that it can rebound from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere (in which the milder influenza A H1N1 has already achieved a footing) and become a global killer.
Already the A H1N1 (or Swine flu) has reached pandemic levels. With major country outbreaks (as defined by a pandemic) with Australia recording the highest amount, outside the Americas, of effected people by 620.
A H1N1 in it's present form is a mild influenza, but it's spreading more rapidly than nominal influenza, as far as moving from country to country in a short period of time. This is the concern as the southern hemisphere goes into it's flu season the question is how will the A H1N1 mutate. Will it become a pandemic killer like the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic ? This is why the World Health Organization is concerned is that it can rebound from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere (in which the milder influenza A H1N1 has already achieved a footing) and become a global killer.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Australia avoids a recession.
Which is incorrect.
Unemployment trend up:
The key problem for policy makers/reserve bank officials is they will need to force the Australian dollar down, if they really care about exports. Other wise Australia like most countries bare the brunt of distorted markets and a weak USA dollar. So a weak AUD will eventuate to less imports, thus effecting domestic consumption and it reeks of protectionism (as policy makers/central banks try and ramp up exports).
It's terrible economics too measure recessions purely on export and import GDP numbers, unemployment and consumption should be factored into GDP numbers.
Look for yourself (if you live in Australia) Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Mar 2009
Unemployment trend up:
- Terms of trade fell 7.8%, meaning imports are shrinking (note. other countries have recorded the same); this means consumption is down i.e less people buying stuff (recession)
- Exports are narrow at 2.7%, this is because imports collapsed (recession)
- The largest negative contribution came from Private business investment at -1.1 percentage points (if you live in Australia note the huge amount of vacant office space in the CBD's)
The key problem for policy makers/reserve bank officials is they will need to force the Australian dollar down, if they really care about exports. Other wise Australia like most countries bare the brunt of distorted markets and a weak USA dollar. So a weak AUD will eventuate to less imports, thus effecting domestic consumption and it reeks of protectionism (as policy makers/central banks try and ramp up exports).
It's terrible economics too measure recessions purely on export and import GDP numbers, unemployment and consumption should be factored into GDP numbers.
Look for yourself (if you live in Australia) Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Mar 2009
Is a Credit Crisis 2 brewing?
Most probably.
Interesting aspect of the so called market stabilization that has occurred recently (apart from the tax payer/s underpinning the whole global economy) is that despite the Federal Reserve pumping money (buying Mortgage back securities and US treasuries) into the US economy to stabilize mortgage rates. Rates are actually moving upward as bond demand falls, particularly demand for US debt. So the the poor home owner is getting screwed between fixing a mortgage rate or shifting from a variable (floating rate) rate. Either way if the Fed (who obviously is going to lose control of surging bond yields), can't hold down mortgage rates. An ongoing spike in mortgage rates will continue. Which could lead to a new wave of foreclosures.
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The global financial crisis may morph into a second, equally virulent phase where borrowing costs rise again, hobbling an embryonic economic recovery, debilitating cash-strapped banks, and punishing investors all over again.
U.S. mortgage rate rise threatens housing recovery (Reuters)
Interesting aspect of the so called market stabilization that has occurred recently (apart from the tax payer/s underpinning the whole global economy) is that despite the Federal Reserve pumping money (buying Mortgage back securities and US treasuries) into the US economy to stabilize mortgage rates. Rates are actually moving upward as bond demand falls, particularly demand for US debt. So the the poor home owner is getting screwed between fixing a mortgage rate or shifting from a variable (floating rate) rate. Either way if the Fed (who obviously is going to lose control of surging bond yields), can't hold down mortgage rates. An ongoing spike in mortgage rates will continue. Which could lead to a new wave of foreclosures.
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The global financial crisis may morph into a second, equally virulent phase where borrowing costs rise again, hobbling an embryonic economic recovery, debilitating cash-strapped banks, and punishing investors all over again.
Early warnings signs of this scenario include surging government bond yields, a slumping U.S. dollar, and the fading of the bear market rally in U.S. stocks."
Rising U.S. bond yields may spark Credit Crisis IIU.S. mortgage rate rise threatens housing recovery (Reuters)
THE HOOD #1 WRITER: JEFF PARKER. ART: KYLE HOTZ (Marvel Comics)
I like creepy mysterious characters, something about them, despite their disadvantages (as opposed to being decent law abiding citizens), they somehow rise to the occasion and triumph. Or do they? History says otherwise, anyway in the mean time it's their euphoric rise (and possible failure) that makes a good story
Parker Robinson (The Hood) is that kinda of character, he runs a criminal underworld, has a criminal superhero lover and unknown to all his activities is a loving girlfriend with their unborn child.
As Parker Robinson tries to manage the unmanageable it will be interesting to see to what extend he can hold together his personal life, his criminal underworld collective, his demonic powers (that seem to want to take him over) and that everyday mundane chore of making money.
This will be a good read courtesy of the story by Jeff Parker with clean and dynamic art by Kyle Holtz.
Monday, June 1, 2009
The US Dollar and Gold showing a reflected 'crossover' patten.
In June 2007 inflation was running high, oil had started it's bull run please refer to Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run?, the asset bubbles were overinflated and the US subprime housing market just went bust.
Gold, apart from other things, is a good indicator of US Dollar weakness and economic trouble and/or inflation hedge. The USD and Gold finally completed a crossover on the 25th June 2007, when a fear that inflation was becoming runaway and the slumping US property market was causing equity markets to decline (which they did).
Today a similar patten is unfolding, in June 2009 the USD is now falling further away from gold, as the USD bull run ended from August 2008 to November 2008 (USD seen as a risk averse currency and bought when the markets collapsed in 2008).
Now with talk of economic recovery, it is clear that the market is dumping the USD (fear of inflation) and buying gold (as a hedge). This mirrors that time when the Federal Reserve Fed fund rate was at 5.25% (June 2007). Where inflation was a problem. Now inflation is creeping back (possibly faster than expected) and the Feds current fund rate is 0%-0.25% and if you look at the below graph, there are wilder USD swings (towards a downside) and sharper sell off the USD. With gold inclining rapidly away from the USD.
From a comparable example of the last price crossover in 2007 (prior to the full market meltdown). It could be argued the market is showing a similarity, but this time with inflation expectations in full force. Will the Federal Reserve lift interest rates? Some commentators think not. The market at this point indicates subtle (or maybe not so subtle) concern (away from stock market euphoria) that something is brewing.
USD Dollar index and Gold Spot price. Note price crossover points on the 25th June 2007 and 1st December 2008. An overall wide patten is forming as the USD and Gold price move rapidly away from each other. In line for another bubble to burst?
Please click on grap for larger image:
Gold, apart from other things, is a good indicator of US Dollar weakness and economic trouble and/or inflation hedge. The USD and Gold finally completed a crossover on the 25th June 2007, when a fear that inflation was becoming runaway and the slumping US property market was causing equity markets to decline (which they did).
Today a similar patten is unfolding, in June 2009 the USD is now falling further away from gold, as the USD bull run ended from August 2008 to November 2008 (USD seen as a risk averse currency and bought when the markets collapsed in 2008).
Now with talk of economic recovery, it is clear that the market is dumping the USD (fear of inflation) and buying gold (as a hedge). This mirrors that time when the Federal Reserve Fed fund rate was at 5.25% (June 2007). Where inflation was a problem. Now inflation is creeping back (possibly faster than expected) and the Feds current fund rate is 0%-0.25% and if you look at the below graph, there are wilder USD swings (towards a downside) and sharper sell off the USD. With gold inclining rapidly away from the USD.
From a comparable example of the last price crossover in 2007 (prior to the full market meltdown). It could be argued the market is showing a similarity, but this time with inflation expectations in full force. Will the Federal Reserve lift interest rates? Some commentators think not. The market at this point indicates subtle (or maybe not so subtle) concern (away from stock market euphoria) that something is brewing.
USD Dollar index and Gold Spot price. Note price crossover points on the 25th June 2007 and 1st December 2008. An overall wide patten is forming as the USD and Gold price move rapidly away from each other. In line for another bubble to burst?
Please click on grap for larger image:
Crossed - Writer: Garth Ennis. Art: Jacen Burrows (Avatar Press)
Garth Ennis takes an idea and makes it better. That being the zombie, civilization breaking down and all hell breaking loose concept in fiction. So the core idea behind 'Crossed' is a 'rage virus' that turns people into maniacal killing machines, with Ennis topping it up with his prolific writing and characters. This comic is packed with dialogue as it builds tension and also allows the reader to align him/her self with the main characters.
Again Ennis writes in strong female characters (or character as portrayed in the 'Crossed' storyline) into his comics. Crossed is a snapshot profile of a society gone to it's basic level of survival and it's a woman with a small child that is able to lead a pack of survivor's up into Alaska and fight onward for survival.
Crossed has all the elements of an Ennis story, a harsh reality and how one can survive in that reality.
Jacen Burrows is a fucking amazing artist for comics, perfect for an Ennis story. Burrows draws characters with amazing lines, showing expressive character profiles from attraction, fear and insanity. There is a stern discipline to his art, it's clean but raw and bloody at the same time. He is drawing Crossed like he is writing the story, both him and Ennis are collectively putting out a classic.
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